Episode Transcript
[00:00:05] Speaker A: This is raise rowdy racing with Caleb Conrady and Dawson Edwards.
[00:00:14] Speaker B: Buddy here for a Wednesday raise. Rowdy racing, NASCAR betting podcast.
[00:00:20] Speaker A: Dang, that's so weird. He didn't start it with hey, beautiful people.
[00:00:23] Speaker B: Good morning, beautiful people. It is morning.
[00:00:25] Speaker A: It's not morning.
[00:00:26] Speaker B: It is good afternoon, beautiful people.
[00:00:28] Speaker A: Heck yeah.
[00:00:29] Speaker B: I have a different intro for the betting podcast, so I have to sorry, Dang.
[00:00:35] Speaker A: Got to have some kind of degenerate rebel yell or something that we enter on with.
[00:00:39] Speaker B: Yeah. So we're going to talk about betting money on a NASCAR race here at Texas, the shittiest racetrack on the schedule that we're going to talk about betting money on.
[00:00:50] Speaker A: Welcome to how to lose your money in 10 seconds or less with Dawson Edwards and Caleb Conredy.
[00:00:55] Speaker B: Yeah, man, I just have to say I haven't lost money yet.
[00:01:00] Speaker A: Yeah, you're doing a lot better. I haven't lost betting than I am.
[00:01:05] Speaker B: Last week. We were just talking like last week I did lose overall, like $20, but I am up a few hundred dollars NASCAR betting this year, which is pretty cool.
So every time I get $100 in my account, I do that. I've done that twice. And then I've won like $540 with dad and them shoots wild. Yeah, I've won $540 with them.
[00:01:33] Speaker A: Man, I can walk into a casino and walk out with money into slot machine. I can do that pretty all right for some reason.
[00:01:39] Speaker B: Still never done that my whole lot.
[00:01:40] Speaker A: And I have a little bit of control over what I do and don't win in the NASCAR betting, and I still can't get it right. And I do a podcast for it. What the hell's wrong with me?
[00:01:48] Speaker B: Yeah, I know.
[00:01:49] Speaker A: I don't know what's going on. Maybe this will help me out. Maybe getting a little cooperative information will help my cause out.
[00:01:56] Speaker B: Taking advice from me.
[00:01:57] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:01:58] Speaker B: So what I was talking about with the other money, my dad's work, there's like a pool of driver of people, and I want to say there's like eight of us in there. And you pay $10 every single week.
There's like $10.08 drivers. Whoever gets the most whoever finishes the highest that week, they don't have to win just out of the ten or eight drivers, whoever gets the highest finish. And that's how you get paid out. And I boosted mine, so I pay 20. But I have reddick and Hamlin, and they've won me nine times this year.
[00:02:33] Speaker A: And I bet you people are just pissed at you all the time because.
[00:02:36] Speaker B: We have a group chat and every week I say, thank y'all. And then I say, for how many times? And last week was nine. So I was like, thank y'all. For the 9th time this year, just.
[00:02:45] Speaker A: Letting them know about it.
[00:02:46] Speaker B: And I don't think I've been paid for that yet.
[00:02:49] Speaker A: Dang, who's holding out on you?
[00:02:51] Speaker B: Man, I don't know. I have not been paid for that ridiculous dang looking at paid for $20 of it. I still need ten more.
[00:03:00] Speaker A: Dang, that's wild, but good for you, making that work. That works out pretty good. That and your DraftKings tends to do pretty well as well. I just can't believe it. Half the time we get done with a race and I'll be like, yeah, I won like, two bets, and you're like, I won this, and then this parlay hit and then this hit. I just get lucky with the random last minute Xfinity bets, and that's usually betting on John Hunter Nemechek twice this year, last minute has won me money. I think it was at Darlington. I won money on him or something.
[00:03:30] Speaker B: Yeah, you definitely beat me in Xfinity bets. But I don't really I bet on Parker Klingerman every why that's why you're losing every week. He's racing good, but he's won me money. I think I'm advanced on him, though, because those couple top fives he's had have helped me out.
[00:03:44] Speaker A: He does drive pretty damn good. I'm amazed at what he's been able to do with his year.
[00:03:47] Speaker B: Yeah, I bet on Parker Kligerman at road courses and plate tracks just because his ODS are crazy low and he does well. So it's a great way to make money is bet on Parker Klingerman.
[00:03:58] Speaker A: Heck yeah. And a great way to make money is to bet on Kyle Larson doing anything. I mean, looking at his stats right now, just since February 2020 at Texas, he's only raced there twice, but he's got an average finish of fifth and led almost half of the laps.
[00:04:13] Speaker B: He's probably got all star win there, too.
[00:04:15] Speaker A: I think that's insane to me. In 21 and intermediate tracks since February 2020, kyle Larson tops Church Stairs again. He's got an average finish of 8.3 leads. No joke. 25% of the laps at mile and a half racetracks since February 2020.
[00:04:33] Speaker B: Dude is a wild.
[00:04:34] Speaker A: That is insane. Imagine going out there and the next person down is Denny Hamlin, and he's only led 11% of the laps, so he leads over double any other driver at the field and a quarter of the laps that get run. That's just insane.
Just wild stats to throw at you to start this off with. I've got racing, I got the driver averages.com website pulled up so we can check a couple stats, argue about a couple things, and prove each other wrong or right. Works out pretty well.
[00:05:01] Speaker B: Yeah. So first things first, me and Caleb, we made this agreement almost, I feel like, when we started betting, but it's like, always put money on your favorite driver. So I do put money on Larson every single week to do something. Heck yeah. And Caleb puts money on Blaney every single week. And Caleb has a quote.
You never want to get to the end of the race and not have money on your driver and be cheering for somebody else just because you have money on them. It's like that just makes you feel like an idiot. So you got to put money on your favorite driver. So our first betting advice is put a little dough on your favorite driver.
[00:05:39] Speaker A: Yep.
[00:05:39] Speaker B: Just because.
[00:05:40] Speaker A: Absolutely. And right now I'm looking at it. Blaney actually does run well at Texas, and he's the only Penske driver left in the playoffs. Penske has not been doing as well this year, but I could see him getting all the advantages of anything Penske has to offer thrown at him at a racetrack that he's good at because we got Texas that he's good at and we've got Talladega that he's good at. But honestly, if I was going to throw anything at either of those tracks, I'd much rather throw it at Texas. So I'm going to go ahead with Blaney this week at Texas. Normally I just pick him for like a top five because I don't expect him to go out there and lead every lap and win this year. This is just a really tough year for the Fords, but I am going.
[00:06:16] Speaker B: To throw last year's a tough year for Blaney as a it's definitely been.
[00:06:21] Speaker A: A rough one this year. He had three wins last year and now here we are. We've got one at Charlote, which was awesome.
[00:06:25] Speaker B: But, man, we got to I thought he didn't have any wins last year.
[00:06:29] Speaker A: No, last year he was just fine then.
[00:06:31] Speaker B: Why do you have that big are you sure?
[00:06:35] Speaker A: Maybe I have that. Maybe I'm thinking of 2021.
[00:06:37] Speaker B: You're thinking the year before because he had that long winless streak of like, over a year and that's what he.
[00:06:43] Speaker A: Busted for some reason in my head, because I drink a lot of beer, it definitely affects my thinking.
[00:06:50] Speaker B: Yeah. So that's what I was Blaney's had the concussion, too. Blaney's had I don't know what's been going on last couple of years and then pansky this year just kind of shitty second.
[00:06:59] Speaker A: But I'm going to go ahead and put a winning bet down on him just because it's my dude. I want to see him do well. I'm not going to put a whole lot on that. I'm just going to throw a couple of bucks down.
[00:07:07] Speaker B: He is plus 1200. Kyle Larson is plus 450.
[00:07:12] Speaker A: That is a winning bet all day long.
[00:07:14] Speaker B: I put it down already.
[00:07:16] Speaker A: Yeah, I'm doing it, too. I'm putting a few more on that one.
[00:07:21] Speaker B: We use DraftKings for our betting apps.
I know a lot of people that I see on the Internet use all kinds of betting apps, but that just gets too confusing and too much for me. So what I do is I have a thing on my phone for NASCAR bets and football bets, and I just write down caleb's actually doing it right now for himself. I just write out exactly what I'm doing. That way I can just check my phone. I know what I'm looking for.
Usually, I think what's kept me pretty reasonable this year with winning, I pick two drivers to win. I usually do a couple of drivers for a top five, top three. And then I couple head to heads. I don't do more than $40 on a cup race, which is a good.
[00:08:07] Speaker A: Idea because it's amazing how one incident can really screw you. And like last week I told you about this, I put so much money down on Christopher Busher and it worked. And it worked as I was looking at my bet and slip, I was looking and I was like, man, if I have one thing happen to that 17 in stage one, I am screwed.
[00:08:27] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:08:27] Speaker A: Because it would have eliminated one of my parlays. I had a top five pick for him and I had something else that he was included in.
[00:08:33] Speaker B: So it was like you had him a group winner.
[00:08:35] Speaker A: Yeah, a group winner.
[00:08:36] Speaker B: Yes. That was it.
[00:08:37] Speaker A: And so I really learned a lesson there. I got lucky that the parlay and the group bet hit. He didn't quite finish it. I think I had him for a top three, finished fourth.
[00:08:46] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:08:46] Speaker A: So I almost called a great race for Chris, which is awesome. But I've learned a lesson last week not to put so much money spread across the board on different bets on the same guy because if he has one incident, you can just write off every single one of those all at the same time. So I definitely learned kind of spread the money around a little bit.
[00:09:04] Speaker B: But yeah, so far it's interesting this year to this race they were kind of talking about for RFK just going off what you're talking about there with kind of that big test for them was going to be Kansas, which I know Kansas and Texas are really nothing alike other than being a mile and a half. But they ran great.
[00:09:24] Speaker A: They did.
[00:09:24] Speaker B: I mean, Bush ended up getting the wall at the end, but other than he had a top ten going all the way and then Kezlowski, that's where he won a stage and all kind of stuff. So might be good to sprinkle some money on RFK at the mile and a half. I'm not going to lie.
[00:09:39] Speaker A: Their odds here are plus 190 and plus 175 for a top five.
[00:09:44] Speaker B: Exactly. And you can make money on those bets with those boys.
[00:09:47] Speaker A: You can. That is definitely an interesting one. I'm looking for anybody else that intrigues me. Kyle Bush at RCR. We were just talking before I started, RCR. Has been running great at Texas. Something about this racetrack really agrees with them. So Austin and Kyle are definitely interesting bets. Austin, of course, I'm a little more gun shy about putting him as a top five, but his top ten, he's.
[00:10:09] Speaker B: Plus 500 for a top ten.
[00:10:11] Speaker A: That is intriguing to me because they've always run well there in this next.
[00:10:15] Speaker B: Gen car, and I could see him.
[00:10:17] Speaker A: Going out and just somehow having one really good day. He's got a win here. So, you know, he comes to this racetrack with a little confidence more than he would anywhere else.
I think that's going to be my top ten bet. Right there is going to be an Austin Dylan top ten.
[00:10:32] Speaker B: I'm not opposed to that at all. Nothing is poking out to me, though. If I'm just going down my list here, like I said, I do two winners. Who do we think? So we got Larson as one, who jumps off the page as your other winner who won there last year. Let's pull that back up.
[00:10:49] Speaker A: Give me 1 second.
[00:10:51] Speaker B: Yeah. So we'll kind of talk about kind of how we go through this. Not that we're like we're not professionals. Do not take any of our advice, actually.
I don't want you to blame me if you lose your house. I'm betting on Kyle Larson and he blows a tire on lap four.
[00:11:07] Speaker A: That was Tyler Reddick's win there last year.
[00:11:09] Speaker B: Okay, we just talked he just talked about that.
[00:11:12] Speaker A: RCR was in the RCR machine.
[00:11:15] Speaker B: Where did Dylan finish?
[00:11:16] Speaker A: Austin Dylan last year finished in 17th.
[00:11:21] Speaker B: Look at who finished 11th last year.
[00:11:24] Speaker A: Michael McDowell.
[00:11:25] Speaker B: And he's what? Plus two?
[00:11:27] Speaker A: That's a lot of money for a top ten.
[00:11:30] Speaker B: That's my top ten bet right there.
[00:11:32] Speaker A: Plus 700.
[00:11:34] Speaker B: That is my top ten.
[00:11:35] Speaker A: Yeah, I mentioned that before we started. He might be an intriguing top ten. Chase Briscoe would be normally someone I would put a top ten bet on here. He does run fairly well here. He ran in fifth last year. But the way that Stuart Haas has been this year with their driver even saying he just wants to get to Phoenix, their lead driver, only one of them in the playoffs is saying that. I just think they're trying to get through this year and call it a day.
[00:12:00] Speaker B: Okay, I just put down McDowell top ten.
[00:12:04] Speaker A: I'm going with you on that one. That's a phenomenal idea.
[00:12:06] Speaker B: That is. Definitely seeing him looking at that finishing order, if he did that last year, I mean, they're running so much better than what they did last year, so I see that just being better.
[00:12:17] Speaker A: Yeah, without incident. I could see them easily being a top 15 car.
It's going to be wild to see him finish 11th this week now that.
[00:12:24] Speaker B: I got money on it. Check it back. Yeah, for real. Check it back there. Did I see Eric Jones in the top?
[00:12:29] Speaker A: I do. Eric Jones in 6th place. Okay, I want three machine.
[00:12:33] Speaker B: I want to hit you with this. I saw this this morning. Average finish for the last three races. Guess who has both cars in the top 14?
[00:12:41] Speaker A: Legacy.
[00:12:42] Speaker B: Legacy. Guess who?
[00:12:43] Speaker A: Carson Hosevar coming through for him. I don't remember who ran it last. Was it Carson?
[00:12:47] Speaker B: Carson's ran last two races. He's going to run it at Texas, and he's going to run it at Talladega Dang.
[00:12:52] Speaker A: And Eric Jones is sitting down here at plus 750 for a top five.
That's a tough one.
[00:12:58] Speaker B: It's a tough one. I don't know.
[00:12:59] Speaker A: The top five is going to be hard for him. The top ten, though, what is he there 275. See, that's intriguing.
[00:13:06] Speaker B: That's intriguing.
[00:13:07] Speaker A: I still don't know if I have enough confidence in that to happen at Texas.
[00:13:11] Speaker B: He has ran incredible the last three weeks.
[00:13:14] Speaker A: He has. So it almost triples your money to get Eric Jones as a top ten.
Maybe like a smaller bet on that.
If you want to talk units or you want to talk money, I don't want to necessarily say every amount of money that I'm throwing down on every bet. I know you talked about it a little bit in the past.
[00:13:30] Speaker B: I do $5. My bets are $5, and I keep them even and plain and simple, a.
[00:13:35] Speaker A: $5 bet a unit, I would say, like, half of that on a top ten. Eric Jones just that way.
[00:13:41] Speaker B: 2.50 cent.
[00:13:42] Speaker A: Yeah, something like that. To where you'd have some money on it. But they have been running well, and I could totally see them going out there and doing it. It's hard for me to find confidence in teams that find new speed. I always have to get them about five weeks into speed before I really give them that bit.
[00:13:57] Speaker B: Well, this will be week number four.
[00:13:58] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:13:59] Speaker B: So I don't know.
[00:14:00] Speaker A: It's a good idea. I just don't think I'm going to go for it. But I'll let you have it if you want to go.
[00:14:04] Speaker B: I'm not necessarily saying I'm going for it. It's just something that intrigues me.
[00:14:08] Speaker A: Any other names that stand out in the top ten from last year and we can go back and look at the year before.
[00:14:12] Speaker B: But Justin Haley finishing third is outrageous.
[00:14:15] Speaker A: Something outrageous and something that's not going to happen this year.
[00:14:20] Speaker B: They did have some great runs last year.
Chastain, man, Chastain and Suarez just do not have speed. Just listen to door bumper clear. They're even talking about it like they don't have the speed that they had to start the year.
[00:14:32] Speaker A: And look at them down there in twelveTH and 13th last year.
[00:14:35] Speaker B: Yeah. And they had speed last year, and then they came out of the gate this year, just balls to the walls. It was awesome. And Ross is running into everything with the pace car. He talks to Rick Hendrick and boom, just I'm not I would stay ice cold away from Chastain and Suarez. But see, now that I say that they'll go out there and run one two, but for me, I'm not putting money on Suarez or Chastain.
[00:15:01] Speaker A: Absolutely not. I mean, that would be such a home run. If you hit that, I'd give it to you all day long and say congratulations, but man, that's going to be a tough one.
[00:15:10] Speaker B: Dude do I put now for my second winner is Reddick.
[00:15:13] Speaker A: I did it the other day and.
[00:15:14] Speaker B: He formed me $50.
[00:15:16] Speaker A: Where is Tyler Reddick in the list here. He's the fourth one down.
A winner bet would be intriguing on that being at plus 800, he would be my solid money.
[00:15:25] Speaker B: Yeah, that's who I would go with, I think for my second one. So I'm going to put down Larson and Tyler Reddick for my winner bets. $45. $5. I mean wins you 45.
[00:15:41] Speaker A: And I've already got Larson down as my alternate winner other than Blaney. So I think I'm going to go.
[00:15:46] Speaker B: With the top three on him on.
[00:15:49] Speaker A: Reddick to finish up there in the front.
[00:15:53] Speaker B: Okay. Let's look at Top.
So you already got some top three.
[00:15:57] Speaker A: That's just my first one. Is reddick going top three. Because I agree with you. I think he's going to go out there and do a lot of really good stuff for him. But I don't want to get so many winners that I end up losing half of the money that I'd make off the winner.
[00:16:08] Speaker B: Love, love that. They have Hamlin and Larson at plus. Money for Top and Byron.
They usually on DraftKings. And you'll see this when we get closer to the track or closer to the race. Those top threes fives are already minus, but threes and five will be minus with the first three to four rows. So if you can hop in like I'm about to do on plus money on a guy like Hamlin and Byron for a top three top five. Not top five. They're not plus there. But for a top three, Hamlin's probably going to be my top three bet right now.
[00:16:47] Speaker A: I've been high on Hamlin for the last like, four or five weeks, so I agree with that. He has been running like an animal. It's crazy. Like a wild animal. He's up there at front constantly, which is awesome. He's shown consistent speed throughout the year. So a top three bet on him for plus 130, I mean, Plus Money is great. Not going to win a ton there, but I'm definitely going to jump on that train with you as the eleven running top three.
[00:17:14] Speaker B: Yes.
So I got four more bets to place. And I usually would do I'm going.
[00:17:23] Speaker A: To say top five is where I'm looking at now.
[00:17:25] Speaker B: To fill Top, I would do one top five and then I'll usually do two to three head to heads.
[00:17:31] Speaker A: So with the top five, four names kind of jump out at me being Kyle Busch, Brad Kislowski, Chris Busher, and Chase Elliott. And they're all right there. Four in a row. Chase somehow has found a lot of speed lately and this is probably the best money you're ever going to get for Chase Elliott.
[00:17:49] Speaker B: It's wild that he's that low.
[00:17:50] Speaker A: He is so low down on the list, which is so rare. Usually on DraftKings he is pegged out at the top. Even at racetracks, he would look at you and say, I am terrible. Here he will be in the top five of the bets of the drivers because it's all based off the market. Everything with DraftKings is all based off of where the action is coming. So they don't want a ton of people betting on somebody to have to pay out a shitload of money to them. So they will lower those payouts if a lot of people are betting on them. And it just shows you chase Elliott sweaty fans are going to bet on sweaty fans. No matter where they're at, they're going to bet on him, which great for him. He's making DraftKings a lot of money.
[00:18:26] Speaker B: Right now, especially this year.
[00:18:28] Speaker A: Yeah, but for top five bets, I think those are the four names that really get my attention. Those are awesome.
[00:18:34] Speaker B: Those are awesome. I cannot believe kyle busch is favored over kezzlowski and bush. That is insane to still I think.
[00:18:42] Speaker A: We'Ve said it before and we'll say it again, the lack of media attention on RFK for everything that they've accomplished this year translates to the amount of people that pay attention to what they're doing.
[00:18:53] Speaker B: I made sense.
[00:18:54] Speaker A: The more you shove that team in front of people, the more people are going to start understanding what they've done with that team. And it's incredible.
[00:19:00] Speaker B: And there when busher won three out of five races, I just want to point out that busher won three ovals in a row. There was the other two races in that five were road courses and he just finished what, fourth at bristol was running great at kansas. Dude, busher, man, I don't know. Busher top five. I mean, that's easy money.
[00:19:20] Speaker A: Where did he finish last year? I don't see him on here.
[00:19:23] Speaker B: They probably ran terrible, I'm not going to lie.
[00:19:27] Speaker A: Oh, yeah, they ran in 30th last.
[00:19:29] Speaker B: Year and Brad k ran eigth, dude, they're both running top ten.
I'm putting five top fives on busher and kez.
[00:19:43] Speaker A: I'm going to go a little different than you. I think I'm going to go kez.
[00:19:46] Speaker B: And Kyle bush because I really think.
[00:19:49] Speaker A: That he's going to finally find some speed in this track.
All righty, so we got those done. Now we're on to pretty much match up some parlays.
[00:20:08] Speaker B: Yeah, match up some parlays. Oh, man, I am just man, I really want to go in on that. Bush bet for top five. I'm not going to lie.
[00:20:18] Speaker A: It's a good one. I think it is.
That's where I'm sticking. I'm sticking with those. So winter bets. Larson and blaney, top three, reddick and hamlin, top five, kyle bush, brad Kislowski. Top tens, austin dillon, michael McDowell. I think that is a solid set of picks for our top ten average running order bets or top ten finishing bets.
[00:20:41] Speaker B: I don't know. Something's telling me not to do it right now. I might do bullish top five. So I have Larson and Reddick as your winners. I have hamlin top three. Kez and Bush are all RFK top five. And I have McDowell top ten. And I have not even taken a peek at head to heads.
[00:21:04] Speaker A: And there's definitely going to be some interesting head to heads.
[00:21:07] Speaker B: I'm going to do that right now, head to head.
[00:21:09] Speaker A: Number one listed on DraftKing has got to be the goofiest head to head I've ever seen.
[00:21:13] Speaker B: Brad K is winning.
[00:21:14] Speaker A: That Brad Kaslowski and Bubba Wallace.
[00:21:16] Speaker B: There's a reason Bubba is not favored.
[00:21:17] Speaker A: There's a reason I just don't understand. I guess they've been finishing around each other. I mean, Buba has been having a better year than he usually does, but, man, I just don't see that matchup being there's a reason why it's so skewed towards Kozlowski.
I know that are jumping out to me that are so easy that you parlay them together and you're going to make money. And that's brad over. Bubba Blaney over.
[00:21:40] Speaker B: Elliot.
[00:21:41] Speaker A: I know I said Elliot's been running better, but there's a reason I don't have a bet down on him because it's inconsistent. And I don't know what to think of Chase Elliott this year, but I know Blaney's going to come out here and run a little bit better than he does at a normal racetrack.
[00:21:55] Speaker B: I think Ty Gibbs beats.
[00:22:00] Speaker A: Think that's I think that's a given.
[00:22:02] Speaker B: I think I'm about to make one. I'm going to go kez. I like to do mine as two pick. Parlays is what I always do. I'm going kez over Bubba.
So let's write that down and then I'm going to do Gibbs over Harvick for one parlay. It's funny. Me and Caleb, this is the first time we've ever made our bets actually together. We will talk back and forth a little bit about a bet. But it's funny. We somehow, just about every week, one of our parlays for head to heads is exactly the identical. It's hilarious.
[00:22:40] Speaker A: And you know, another one that I think is going to be a pretty easy plus.
[00:22:46] Speaker B: 219.
[00:22:48] Speaker A: Man, it's a little tougher, but I really think Reddick beats Christopher Bell.
I mean, bell's been running. Bell's just got that playoff thing about him, so he's going to run better.
[00:22:58] Speaker B: But Reddick say it one more time. You think Reddick beats Bell?
[00:23:00] Speaker A: Christopher Bell. Bell's got a playoff thing that goes on with him, but Reddick has an everyday thing that goes on.
[00:23:06] Speaker B: Yeah, something must happen to him last year because he finished, like, 34th or something like that.
[00:23:10] Speaker A: Christopher Bell.
[00:23:10] Speaker B: Yeah, I definitely would take Reddick over Bell.
[00:23:18] Speaker C: MMM.
[00:23:20] Speaker B: Reddick over bell. And let's see what else.
[00:23:23] Speaker A: That's where I'm going to tie in the Gibbs over Harvick idea there.
[00:23:26] Speaker B: Okay, so what was your first one then?
[00:23:28] Speaker A: My first one was Kez to beat Bubba and Blaney to beat Elliot. My second one is Gibbs to beat Harvick, reddick to beat I mean, I know we're going all favorites here, but there's a reason that they're just it seems like those are jumping off the page to me. But the other head to heads that are listed here, byron Over Truex, which I could see happening, and then Denny and Larson. And I think the hardest part about.
[00:23:53] Speaker B: The reason that one's a toss up there is a reason.
[00:23:55] Speaker A: There is a reason that they're paired together, and it's because those four guys have been the fast four all year. It's going to be really hard to make either of those bets. I mean, you got a 50 50 chance either way, but you're pretty much.
[00:24:08] Speaker B: Picking the winners out of that.
[00:24:12] Speaker A: So I'll let you handle it. If you want to go there, I'll let you go there.
[00:24:16] Speaker B: Go. I think I'm going to do Byron over. True, X Man. Truex. I think I said this on our normal Raise Rowdy podcast where'd they finish last year.
[00:24:27] Speaker A: Here, Byron finished in 7th. Truex finished in 31st after an accident. So that's a little tough. Budy finished 9th in stage two, whereas Willie B finished 6th, third, and 7th.
[00:24:42] Speaker B: I'm going over true.
[00:24:43] Speaker A: See, I could see where you're coming from with that.
You know, True X at least made it through stage two, but he didn't even score points in stage one.
That's a good idea.
[00:24:55] Speaker B: Say this again. Like I said, I think I said this on our Razor Addy podcast, but True X has four finishes in a row of 18th or worst, the first time since 2014. So that just I don't know, man. They're not running. They're not summertime the way they were running the summertime summertime, man, they were lots out, but they are not lots out right now.
[00:25:17] Speaker A: They struggled through round one with the struggle with the largest number of points tied with Byron, which is because without.
[00:25:24] Speaker B: Him having that badass summer, we'd be saying bye bye, True X in the playoffs.
[00:25:32] Speaker A: Man, who would have thought?
[00:25:37] Speaker B: Low ODS, though this week, because normally my parlays $5 gets you about 20.
[00:25:43] Speaker A: Well, I think normally there's one OD one where we pick the underdog, but this time I think we've picked all favorites.
[00:25:49] Speaker B: Yeah. So $5 on Kez over Bubba and GIZ over Harbick is 1595. And then five with reddick over bell. Byron over true x is $16.20.
[00:26:00] Speaker A: Okay, there you go.
[00:26:02] Speaker B: And then the last two weeks now at Kansas, I had a four pick parlay that was $50 and it hit. That's how I won so much money. I won 50 on Reddick, won 50 on that four person parlay, and then I had everything hit.
[00:26:15] Speaker A: And that's the hard. That's the reason we always do two pick parlays for those matchups, is because you start adding up those four, all it takes is one accident and it wrecks the whole thing. Yeah, that's the one part about NASCAR that's really tough to bet on, is in football, if you have somebody. Get an injury unless it's like a really key player, like a quarterback or a running back. Somebody gets an injury, the team's still good. The team can still go out there and ball out and win.
In NASCAR, you have one thing go wrong and it doesn't even have to be your fault. Like Logano last week getting taken out by the seven machine, one thing goes wrong and boom, somebody that could have been running up front blaney at Daytona earlier this year. I know I brought that one up on the regular podcast, too, but just boom, right there. We're winning everything and all of a sudden one accident takes out your entire.
[00:26:59] Speaker B: It has absolutely nothing to do with you.
[00:27:01] Speaker A: It's so turned so frustrating because that's the hard part, is sometimes you got to pick the underdog simply because there's a chance that they could wreck. And the money's so good, especially on these mean. I'm down to go all favorites with this one because Texas is a track that I don't think we're going to see a huge amount of chaos at.
[00:27:20] Speaker B: Belong tires is the only thing I can think of.
[00:27:22] Speaker A: Yeah, and that's going to be such a random thing, you can't really even include it in your thought process because it might happen to three drivers and it could happen to any one of them all the way down the running order. Yeah, it's tough. Tough to pick it.
We got some groups going on.
[00:27:37] Speaker B: I do not bet on groups.
[00:27:38] Speaker A: I don't know if I do. Every now and then I just do like one maybe. Let's check those out. It just depends on which one I mean. Group a, you're picking the winner. Let's be honest, it's Larson, hamlin, byron or Reddick. Who do you think is going to win more? And we've already placed that bet, so I'm not as intrigued by that one.
[00:27:55] Speaker B: Nope.
[00:27:56] Speaker A: Group B with Blaney. Bush, bell and truex.
That's a tough one.
That's a tough one. I would say I would either go with bush or Blaney on that one.
[00:28:07] Speaker B: And they're the same. ODS, I would say the same thing, go with Blaney.
[00:28:12] Speaker A: But I've already bet on him to be one of my winners, so I'd hate to lose two times on him.
Group C. Kez Busher. Elliot Wallace.
I'm going busher. I would go RFK on that one for sure.
[00:28:28] Speaker B: I don't know kez, too. Just a toss up between those. There's a reason they're 230 and 250. I mean, they're right there on top of each other.
[00:28:34] Speaker A: And buba finished like 25th last year running the whole race.
Man, that's a tough one.
[00:28:41] Speaker B: I know exactly who I'd pick in the next one and then the last one.
[00:28:45] Speaker A: Chastain gibbs Legano. Harvick. That is Ty gibbs. Gibbs all day long.
[00:28:49] Speaker B: Gibbs all the way.
[00:28:52] Speaker A: That's the one I think I'm most intrigued by.
[00:28:54] Speaker B: That makes me want to put money on that one.
[00:28:56] Speaker A: I'm putting money on ty Gibbs. To beat Chastain Harvick and and I.
[00:29:02] Speaker B: Think he outruns those guys drastically.
[00:29:05] Speaker A: But Legano is really good at Texas. He finished second there last year and he's a little bit more plus money. Ty Gibbs definitely immediately gets my attention. But Logano would be my other guy that I would wonder about in that one, whether I should go with him instead. If you're going, Gibbs, I think you're going.
[00:29:22] Speaker B: But need to go Gibbs.
[00:29:23] Speaker A: I think I'm going to go Legano. If you go gibbs, I'll go Legano. And we'll fight that one out. We'll see who wins it.
[00:29:28] Speaker B: Let's do it.
I'm putting a half a unit. We'll call it on a half a unit.
[00:29:38] Speaker A: I only had a tiny little amount left in my app, so I just put that little last bit on there. So I am officially pegged out on money without depositing more.
[00:29:45] Speaker B: Yeah.
So I've bet $42.50 is what I've bet.
That little bet only wins you, like, $7. But it is what it is. That's $5 for another bet, another day.
[00:29:57] Speaker C: There you go.
[00:29:59] Speaker B: But yeah, that's what we rolled. I went over here. Toyota is the favorite to win. Interesting. I believe that Caleb is a big believer in Toyota.
[00:30:10] Speaker A: I think it's Toyota or Chevy. Obviously, Ford just does not have the speed this year, so you can immediately eliminate them out of your thought process.
[00:30:18] Speaker B: Unless Bush or Kez win this race.
[00:30:20] Speaker A: Unless they do. But I still think that your Toyotas and your Chevys just have the raw speed that Ford is missing right now. That is going to be so necessary at Texas because it's going to be hard to pass. There's going to be one lane, and you're just going to have to go out and straight up outrun the competition. And I'd be surprised to see a Ford go out there and do that. There's a reason why they're plus 350 and the other two are both tied at plus 135. So really, I would put it as a toss up between Chevy and Toyota. I could definitely see being the winner, but I wouldn't fault anybody for picking Chevy. If you're picking Ford, you're straight up doing that just because the prize money is bigger.
[00:31:01] Speaker B: That is true.
[00:31:02] Speaker A: That's the only reason I would pick.
[00:31:03] Speaker B: And because you believe in RFK.
[00:31:05] Speaker A: Yeah, and I believe in RFK, don't get me wrong. But I would rather bet on the drivers than bet on the manufacturer because nobody else in Ford I mean, if RFK goes out there and somehow has a terrible day by some wild happening, you have no other team that's going to come out there and back that up. That is true. I would say just sheer numbers wise, sheer statistics wise, I would go with the other two and really coin flip them.
[00:31:31] Speaker B: Totally.
And we talked about I just want to check one more time on these top tens. McDowell is definitely I'm all in on McDowell.
[00:31:40] Speaker A: Yeah, that was a great call all the way around.
[00:31:43] Speaker B: All in on McDowell getting a top ten.
Justin haley, like I said, finished third here. I mean, that's wild. He finished third, I'm not going to lie. That's crazy. And he's plus 1300 for a top ten.
[00:31:54] Speaker A: Who is this?
[00:31:55] Speaker B: Haley?
Not that I'm putting money on, I'm just letting you know. I'm just telling you.
[00:31:59] Speaker A: No, I mean, it's a good idea.
Corey LaJoy might be another one I'd be intrigued by.
[00:32:04] Speaker B: Well, if you look, LaJoy did ran well here last year. If you look, I saw his name, 14th.
[00:32:09] Speaker A: Yeah, see, no stage points but 14th. Michael McDowell just straight up ran 10th. All day long. He ran 10th, 10th and 11th. That was a stage win. Stage win, race end.
[00:32:21] Speaker B: That's awesome.
[00:32:22] Speaker A: As long as he can just come out there and he's faster this year, I could see it.
[00:32:26] Speaker B: I personally hell, LaJoy ran great last week. LaJoy led the most laps he's ever let in a race at bristol. Not that bristol and texas compare at all, but we've said it all year. They're averaging almost ten spots a race, better than they've ran ever before. They used to be that 25th place car. Now they're about a 15th to 20th place car.
[00:32:47] Speaker A: All right, here's a wild question for you, for anybody listening. Who would you absolutely avoid at texas? That is one of the favorites to win. I know we talked about chastain already.
[00:33:00] Speaker B: Chastain. And then I was actually going to say one of the favorites. He's 12345, 6th in line.
[00:33:06] Speaker A: Bell, christopher bell.
[00:33:08] Speaker B: He's 6th in line or 6th favorite to win. And I just taken out by the.
[00:33:15] Speaker A: Damaged vehicle policy last year, didn't finish in the stages. I don't know when he wrecked out, but yeah, I could see what you're talking about there. He's plus money all across the board.
[00:33:29] Speaker B: For top five and up.
[00:33:31] Speaker A: Yeah, he's that driver that I just can't ever be confident in. I can never bet on him and just say, without a doubt, this is a lock. And we've already betted against him with the reddick bell bet.
[00:33:42] Speaker B: And he comes like when he wins a race. You just said it's random as it gets. It's not like, oh, yeah, bell's coming in the day. The only one I could think of would be new hampshire for him. And that's a idea if you're going.
[00:33:58] Speaker A: To new hampshire, him and amarola, christopher bell all day long and eric amarola, because that was the funny part about last new hampshire race. I told you, I was like, amarillo is going to run well. He's going to come out here and do it. And I remember you being like, man, screw mean, I know you're not an amarilla fan by any means, but I told you whenever he came out there, I was like, there's going to be something about amarilla at new hampshire. I think that's going to be a lock bet. I'm pretty sure I put him down for like a top ten or a top five and won it last year. I'd have to go back and look at the number.
[00:34:28] Speaker B: I put money on him this year at New Hampshire and his team left his tire off and he was in the lead and his will was loose and was like, yeah, that's about right. That's it.
[00:34:38] Speaker A: I wish it was 2023.
[00:34:39] Speaker B: And that ruined the whole race for him.
[00:34:41] Speaker A: So Christopher Bell this year, out of all the races we've had up until now, he is one win, seven top.
[00:34:52] Speaker B: Fives, 15 top tens.
[00:34:56] Speaker A: Average finish is 13.3 and his average start is 9.9. That just goes to prove you that dude can qualify. But he races the slightly worse, about four positions worse. But he has led 501 laps. He's been up front.
[00:35:10] Speaker B: I mean, he's had like, what, like four or five polls this year? Yeah.
[00:35:13] Speaker A: It's insane.
[00:35:14] Speaker B: It's crazy.
So I'm not like on the fuck Christopher Bell train? By no means. I'm just saying you asked me who is favorited in this race, and I would say he is favorited since he is 6th. Yeah, I'd say your favorited guys are what your top ten? I don't know. I don't really know what that means. I don't really know what the ODS are to clarify as a favorited. But he's 6th on the list.
[00:35:36] Speaker A: Someone that's up there that just like you did, he's 6th on the list.
[00:35:41] Speaker B: And I'm staying away from him. And I bet it against him. So that's my bet and I'm laying in it. I'm going to throw the question back to you. Who are you staying away from? True, x yeah, all day long.
[00:35:51] Speaker A: True X is right there next to Bill. He's at plus 800 ODS to win, like you've already said, and we've already gone over it plenty of times. They're having a really rough patch right now.
Honestly. I could see this being another spot where Truex has a tough time making it out of round two because we also got to go to Talladega. And he struggles at plate tracks. He doesn't run. Crazy great there.
[00:36:10] Speaker B: So we got Texas Dega and Roble.
[00:36:14] Speaker A: Yeah. And he almost won the roval first year. But like we said, with Blaney running up front one time at a racetrack no one's ever been to before is one thing. Now that they've got four of them under their belt, I think it's going to be a little bit of a different story.
[00:36:27] Speaker B: If you also, though, look at Truex road course races, last car and road course races, this car, they're drastically different.
[00:36:35] Speaker A: Yeah, he was a phenomenal road course racer in that previous generation car. And now that every one of the cars out there is a great road course car, he doesn't have that advantage.
[00:36:43] Speaker B: Yeah, it's drastically different.
I'm with you. I'm not on the true X train. I'll throw this out there though, if you had a true X bell head to head. I'd take truex.
[00:36:52] Speaker A: I think I agree with that because I could just see them going out there and somehow salvaging a good finish.
[00:36:58] Speaker B: I use the term every given Sunday. True X is every given Sunday kind of driver. Like, he can go out and win any given Sunday.
[00:37:05] Speaker A: He definitely could.
[00:37:06] Speaker B: So I'm staying away from him as well. But if he won this race, I wouldn't be like if he literally going out and led 300 laps, I would be not super surprised. Yeah. Because he's true X. You wouldn't just be like, oh, my God, you wouldn't.
[00:37:25] Speaker A: But I think if you're talking someone who's walking in with confidence out of the whole JGR stable, you're looking at Denny Hamlin.
[00:37:31] Speaker B: Oh, for sure.
[00:37:31] Speaker A: Ty gibbs is still learning. He's figuring it out. I think Ty Gibbs is going to come out to be a phenomenal race car driver. He just needs learning. He just needs to grow up a little bit and fill out his fire suit because, man, he's kind of a tiny squirrel. He's a tiny squirrel boy. And he needs to work on it. He needs to come out there with confidence hitting the weight room.
[00:37:52] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:37:53] Speaker A: And maybe find some platforms to put in his shoes, get him a couple inches taller.
[00:37:57] Speaker B: But yeah.
[00:37:58] Speaker A: Anyway, I think he's going to come out and be fine. He just needs a couple of years under his belt before that's going to happen. And Christopher Bell is just mid, to be honest. Battle of the mid. He is just super down the middle. There's nothing that excites me about Christopher Bell. Even when he wins.
[00:38:14] Speaker B: It's just like, woo. Yeah.
Woohoo. Yeah. I agree 110%.
[00:38:20] Speaker A: But yeah, denny Hammond right now is your JGR driver. And I don't think anybody can argue with that. You know what I wish they would do with groups?
[00:38:27] Speaker B: Do teammates.
[00:38:28] Speaker A: Yeah. Put all the teammates in one group and say, who's going to finish best out of the teammate DraftKings? I hope you're listening because that would be a great idea. Who out of all the teammates is going to finish the best and make us pick on that? I think that'd be a lot of fun.
[00:38:39] Speaker B: Yeah, that'd be.
[00:38:43] Speaker A: Love.
[00:38:43] Speaker B: They don't do this on DraftKings. I've never made these bets, but I think bets are super cool and they got like, who's the best Ford driver in the race? Who's the best Chevy driver in the.
[00:38:54] Speaker A: Race in Ford stage finish position?
[00:38:57] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:38:57] Speaker A: Other cool one. Who's finished top ten in the other.
[00:39:01] Speaker B: Betting apps do do those, I think.
[00:39:03] Speaker A: Yeah. DraftKings is very basic. It's the same thing every week.
[00:39:07] Speaker B: But it's so user friendly.
[00:39:09] Speaker A: I'm not faulting user. I like using the app. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy the heck out of it. We always have a good time making these bets. And honestly, if you start giving me more options, I'm just going to go more broke. So I'm happy with where they leave it for the most part. I would love to see some other real fun things. Maybe a prop here and there that is like a little different. Just have a little creativity because it does kind of get yeah, it gets a little boring after a while.
[00:39:31] Speaker B: I think as betting gets more legal in more places, what we need to see happen to make NASCAR more prominent, I guess, on these betting apps would.
[00:39:47] Speaker A: Be cool as hell if they did.
[00:39:48] Speaker B: Like these 50% profit boots on MLB and NFL every single game, every single week.
[00:39:55] Speaker A: Something it doesn't even have to be.
[00:39:56] Speaker B: On a driver winning. Just like on a boost on a head to head or boost on a Chevrolet winning or shit like that.
[00:40:03] Speaker A: A boost on the favorite driver in the field to win that week, to be at plus 100 instead of minus money. Or like an additional like we'll give you a 50% profit boost if the favorite wins.
[00:40:14] Speaker B: I'll tell you what would be cool if they did. We've done a couple of these already. They had like Tyree Kill to get 75 yards plus 100, which is originally negative 250.
[00:40:25] Speaker A: I see where you're going.
[00:40:26] Speaker B: So if they did like a Larson at, say, Texas, where he's super favorited, he's a negative 155 to finish a top five. They could make that a plus 100.
[00:40:35] Speaker A: Yeah, or say Kyle Larson to lead so many laps in the race. That would be another really cool one, like 250 plus the whole race.
[00:40:45] Speaker B: You know what I mean? I was thinking about like yardage or something. They do do that with quarterbacks. He's going to throw 275 plus or.
[00:40:51] Speaker A: Less, whatever, average running order.
Average running order during the race. By the end of it. Do you think this car is going to run average 9th or better, something like that? And it could get so wild because you have a weird pit stop cycle that's under green that didn't happen under a caution. You could have a driver that was average running order in the top three all day long and then suddenly they're going to be in 15th for a few laps and it's going to pull that average down till everybody cycles through, especially if a few guys stay out there super late begging for a caution.
There's just so many different ways you could get so creative with how to place bets in this app that on one hand, I was glad that they're not anything crazy because I'd feel like I just throw money at everything. But also I think there's a lot of chance to make more money as a fan if you're not having to only do bets that are plus 400 for someone to win the race or top five. It's so easy for those bets to get blown up by something happening. But it would be a lot of fun to do like a performance based bet instead of a finishing based bet.
[00:41:53] Speaker B: I agree. I agree a lot.
[00:41:55] Speaker A: Team to have the fastest pit stop.
[00:41:57] Speaker B: Oh, that'd be cool. That'd be really cool.
[00:41:59] Speaker A: That'd be fun. I'd bet Ty Gibbs and chase briscoe on that all day.
[00:42:04] Speaker B: That's another thing. Just bringing it up has nothing to do with betting, but with the one team. They at the all star break had the number one average crew, even though I know that Gibbs team won, but at the time, they had the number one average, and I don't know if they do anymore.
[00:42:21] Speaker A: I would have to look, I don't really pay too crazy much attention to that.
[00:42:24] Speaker B: I don't pay much attention either.
They throw a lot of stats up there now, so it's like you see them every now and again.
[00:42:32] Speaker A: Twitter is a stat machine.
[00:42:33] Speaker B: Yeah, but anyway, I feel like that was the fastest 45 minutes of my whole life. I feel like we've been talking for, like it was awesome ten minutes, but this is kind of exactly what we wanted to do.
I would love to dabble a little more in this to the year, and then maybe next year we do do a lot of betting stuff. It'd be really cool. Do once a week really cool. But we'll throw this up this evening, and hopefully you all make some money. We make some money this week. Texas motor speedway, fort Worth, Texas, across from the buc EES.
[00:43:07] Speaker A: Hell, yeah. That's my hometown racetrack, so don't shit on it too much. I might start to cry. But if you want to make money, y'all just bet on the braves and don't listen to us, and you'll have a great time with it.
[00:43:16] Speaker B: If you bet the braves to win every night, you will make money.
[00:43:20] Speaker A: You will make money.
[00:43:21] Speaker B: You will make money.
[00:43:22] Speaker A: That is a guaranteed fact.
[00:43:24] Speaker B: That is a guaranteed fact. Except today, because I lost money on them this morning.
[00:43:27] Speaker A: Well, you can't win every time, but if you win 75% of the time, you're doing all right.
[00:43:32] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:43:32] Speaker A: Their winning percentile is a little too high to lose money on them.
[00:43:35] Speaker B: It is, but yeah. Anyway, this was raise rowdy betting podcast.
[00:43:43] Speaker A: The room 310 sessions continues on.
[00:43:46] Speaker B: That could be the name of it.
[00:43:49] Speaker A: The room 310 sessions betting.
[00:43:51] Speaker B: All right, thanks for listening. Thank you. All.
[00:43:54] Speaker A: Y'all go make some money. Have fun.
[00:44:01] Speaker C: I don't drive a Monte Carlo and my truck ain't painted black. It ain't got a big white number three turning left around a track.
But you can hear me coming from a mile and a half away.
These good? Years can't handle dirt don't need no turns with banks what I like in horses I make up with four by four I'm in and out of traffic till I make it to your door checkers record my rapid hammered on the gas I'm making my way to you, girl earn hard fast my hood don't say good or and ain't never.
